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COVID-19: Potentially flawed models may lead to inappropriate decisions

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(Vienna, 10 April 2020) In an international collaboration, Christine Wallisch, Maria Haller and Georg Heinze from the Institute of Clinical Biometrics of the Medical University of Vienna reviewed the evidence about prediction models used in COVID-19 for diagnosis and prognosis. They found high risk of bias in 27 out of 27 published studies. This alarming result may lead to wrong diagnosis of COVID-19 and inappropriate predictions for patients with COVID-19. The study was initiated by researchers at the Universities of Maastricht and Utrecht and involved prognosis researchers from the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom and Austria.

The study was published on April 7, 2020 in BMJ. The review is a ‘living review’ and will be periodically updated. 



Service: British Medical Journal
Wynants L, van Calster B, Bonten MMJ, Collins GS, Debray TPA, de Vos M, Haller MC, Heinze G, Moons KGM, Riley RD, Schuit E, Smits LJM, Snell KIE, Steyerberg EW, Wallisch C, van Smeden M. Prediciton models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19 infection: systematic review and critical appraisal. BMJ 2020; 369:m1328. doi:10.1136/bmj.m1328