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Risk calculator for thromboses and embolisms

(Vienna, 19 April 2010) The latest issue of the journal "Circulation" of the American Heart Association has made the scientific publication "Risk assessment of recurrence in patients with unprovoked deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism: the Vienna prediction model" the so-called "editor's pick" as the most important work. This prediction model on the risk of relapse in patients with venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism has been presented for the first time following almost 20 years of research activities. At the heart of this model is a so-called "risk calculator" which can be used to calculate the risk of relapse online. The result of this calculation can then be used in the therapeutic decision.

Patients suffering from venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism in whom no triggering cause could be found for this occurrence have a high risk of relapse. About one third of these patients recidivate within 5 years and some 10% of patients who suffer from a relapse die of pulmonary embolism. It is therefore of major clinical interest to identify those who run a particularly high risk and would benefit from a long-term blood-thinning therapy.

With this new prediction model (the "Vienna prediction model"), taking into account gender, the localisation of the thrombosis (lower leg, upper leg/pelvis or pulmonary embolism) and laboratory findings (D-dimer test), it is possible to calculate the risk of relapse after 1 and 5 years and adjust the duration of the blood-thinning therapy accordingly.

This model is the result of a collaboration of the working group of Ao. Univ. Prof. Dr. Paul Kyrle / Ao. Univ. Prof. Dr.  Sabine Eichinger (Division of Haematology and Haemostaseology, Department of Medicine I) and Ao. Univ. Prof. Mag. Dr. Georg Heinze (Institute of Clinical Biometry, Centre of Medical Statistics, Information and Intelligent Systems) of the Medical University of Vienna.

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